POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE COFFEE BERRY BORER (Hypothenemus hampei FERRARI, 1867) IN THE STATE OF MEXICO

Abstract

Coffee, as one of the main agricultural products consumed worldwide, has acquired a very important role in agriculture this crop, as well as other economically important crops, is attacked by various pests and diseases, among them, the coffee berry borer has become the most important coffee pest worldwide, due to its effects on the crop, causing losses to coffee growers due to reduced yields, drop of unripe fruits and reduction of their quality, for the present research, the behavior of the Coffee berry borer was identified using the population dynamics tool, in order to determine the current state of the populations, for this reason sampling was carried out in four municipalities of the State of Mexico, Mexico, the Bootstrap method was used to validate the accuracy of the data, since it allows us to estimate the statistics of interest in order to use them in different models, which were: Weibull, Richards, Morgan and Multiple Linear Regression, where the best model to estimate the distribution was the Weibull model, since the selection of this model was due to the accuracy of the data obtained and its complexity, as a result of the model the growth rate of the insect and its amplitude in the study area were observed, observing an exponential growth, reaching an infestation of 50% of the plots in one year of simulation, showing that from day 200 the infestation begins, reaching the conclusion that the environment of these zones is ideal for the pest to proliferate, this helps crop management to anticipate and control the spread of the pest by adjusting the control practices.